Forecasting Terminology

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Term Definition
Forecast[ing] (v)
The process of using the EMarketOffer model to stimulate the behaviour of the electricity Market under a specific set of conditions
Forecast (n)
The output (data set) from a single execution of the model from a Forecast Definition
Forecast Definition (n)
A set of input data required by EMarketOffer to effectively execute a single Run of the dispatch and pricing model
Infeasibility
A situation in which a feasible dispatch solution cannot be calculated from a given set of dispatch constraints and input data
Run (v)
A single execution of the EMarketOffer model using a specified Forecast Definition to create a single Forecast output data set
Scenario
In general forecasting usage the term scenario is often used loosely to describe both a broad context of interest (e.g. a new wind farm) or a unique set of circumstances (e.g. a new wind farm during a sustained low wind period and a major outage at the nearest thermal generator). In EMarketOffer the word 'Scenario' is reserved exclusively for specifically defining the modelling context for a single dispatch period.
Input Data
To simulate the operation of the SPD market clearance engine, EMarketOffer requires the same input data as SPD viz: Offers, Demand and Transmission System configuration
Dispatch Factor
Any individual 'fact' that is used by the program to solve a dispatch problem
Effective date range
Every Forecast is associated with an effective date range that is specified in the Forecast Definition. The effective date range is expressed with three pieces of information:
  • A start date
  • A start period
  • The number of periods for which forecast data is to be created (including the first period)
It is possible to "forecast" into the past using real historical data as well as into the future using synthetic data. EMarketOffer uses the effective date range to:
  • Create a Transmission System configuration for the Forecast based on the best available data from TPIX
  • Allow realistic Reserves, Offer and Demand data to be loaded into the Forecast Definition (typically of historical data).


WARNING! A Forecast Definition works with a set of input data limited to seven consecutive days. A Forecast Effective Date Range of 14 days will cause EMarketOffer to re-cycle the loaded Offers and Demand data from the first week for the second week of the forecast. Transmission system data will however change correctly with calendar date beyond the 7th day.


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